Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators
TV TSN3, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Jets
to win
59%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.491vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.048vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG.117vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.027vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersJets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WPG Scott Arniel · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 18.5%24th
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 77.6%21st
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 51.1%9th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).