Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets
TV TSN3, TSN5·Canada Life Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Senators
to win
49%
Jets
- Expected goals
- 3.0–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.491win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.0485v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG-.066vs.115GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.679vs.2905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WPGWPG at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Jets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6056% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · WPG Scott Arniel
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.358th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.9913th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 24.0%8th
- Power play
- 24th18.5%
- 75.7%29th
- Penalty kill
- 21st77.6%
- 54.5%2nd
- Faceoffs
- 9th51.1%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).