Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV CHSN, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Blackhawks
to win
59%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TOR.463vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TOR-.223vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR-.081vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TOR-.612vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CHI Jeff Blashill · TOR Jim Hiller
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).