Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks
TV TNT, truTV·United Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Maple Leafs
to win
49%
Blackhawks
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TOR.479vs.463win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TOR-.113vs-.2235v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.081GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TOR-.105vs-.6125v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CHICHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Blackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · CHI Jeff Blashill
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).