Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV ESPN+, HULU·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Avalanche
to win
49%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT.337vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 3rd3.54
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 24th3.15
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 7th24.1%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 6th81.4%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 24th48.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).