Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
TV SN-PIT, ALT·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Penguins
to win
63%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.510vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.036vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL-.237vs.096GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.543rd
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 3.1524th
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 24.1%7th
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 81.4%6th
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 48.2%24th
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).