Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers
TV The Spot, SN+·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Lightning
to win
51%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.037GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors EDM.294vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).