Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV ESPN+, HULU·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Oilers
to win
56%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.504vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.040vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.037vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors EDM.475vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.446th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 3.2325th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 30.6%1st
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 77.8%20th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 52.6%6th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).