New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers
TV MSGSN, SN·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Islanders
to win
57%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM.488vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM-.069vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs.037GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 2.885th
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 16.5%30th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 80.8%10th
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 52.6%5th
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).