Islanders at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Flames

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Thu, Jan 7, 8:00 PM ESTTV MSGSN, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

49%

Islanders

to win

51%

Flames

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors NYI
.488vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYI
-.069vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs.016GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors NYI
-.034vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
M. Coronato
45
B. Horvat
31
Goals
M. Frost
22
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 16.5%30th
Power play: 31st16.2%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 10@
Jan 7@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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