Flames at Islanders — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Flames at Islanders

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Thu, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ESTTV MSGSN, SN1·UBS Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

44%

Flames

to win

56%

Islanders

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors NYI
.481vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYI
-.127vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.016vs.078GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors NYI
-.091vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors NYI
NYI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · NYI Peter DeBoer

Leaders

vs

M. Coronato
45
Points
M. Schaefer
59
M. Frost
22
Goals
B. Horvat
31
M. Coronato
27
Assists
M. Schaefer
36

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.5432nd
Goals for / game: 25th2.79; 3.1221st
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 16.2%31st
Power play: 30th16.5%; 80.4%12th
Penalty kill: 10th80.8%; 49.3%21st
Faceoffs: 5th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 10@this game
Jan 7@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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