Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, SN+·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Jets
to win
59%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.491vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.048vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG.117vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.027vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersJets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WPG Scott Arniel · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 18.5%24th
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 77.6%21st
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 51.1%9th
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).