Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks
TV NBCSCA, SN·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Maple Leafs
to win
48%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.479vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors SJS-.113vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors SJS-.105vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
- Back-to-backfavors TORSJS played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0716th
- Goals for / game
- 17th3.04
- 3.6031st
- Goals against / game
- 30th3.54
- 21.3%15th
- Power play
- 16th21.2%
- 81.2%8th
- Penalty kill
- 26th76.4%
- 54.2%3rd
- Faceoffs
- 26th47.8%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).