San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV NBCSCA, SN+·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Sharks
to win
55%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.479vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors SJS-.114vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR-.137vs.052GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 16th3.07
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 31st3.60
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 15th21.3%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 8th81.2%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 3rd54.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).