Senators at Capitals — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Senators at Capitals

Ottawa Senators(44-27-11)

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Sat, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ESTTV MNMT, SNE·Capital One Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

48%

Senators

to win

52%

Capitals

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.515vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT
.107vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
-.066vs.165GSAx / 60
Home icefavors WSH
WSH at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Senators

Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/60
62% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/60
38% to start143 career GP

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: OTT Travis Green · WSH Spencer Carbery

Leaders

vs

T. Stützle
83
Points
A. Tuch
66
T. Stützle
34
Goals
A. Tuch
33
T. Stützle
49
Assists
D. Strome
39

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.358th
Goals for / game: 15th3.18; 2.9913th
Goals against / game: 7th2.90; 24.0%8th
Power play: 25th17.8%; 75.7%29th
Penalty kill: 14th80.1%; 54.5%2nd
Faceoffs: 20th49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 10@
Jan 2@this game
Apr 8@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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