Capitals at Senators — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Capitals at Senators

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Ottawa Senators(44-27-11)

Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ESTTV MNMT, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Capitals

to win

55%

Senators

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.516vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT
.013vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
.165vs-.066GSAx / 60
Home icefavors OTT
OTT at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

Senators

Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/60
62% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/60
38% to start143 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · OTT Travis Green

Leaders

vs

A. Tuch
66
Points
T. Stützle
83
A. Tuch
33
Goals
T. Stützle
34
D. Strome
39
Assists
T. Stützle
49

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.1815th
Goals for / game: 8th3.35; 2.907th
Goals against / game: 13th2.99; 17.8%25th
Power play: 8th24.0%; 80.1%14th
Penalty kill: 29th75.7%; 49.3%20th
Faceoffs: 2nd54.5%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 10@this game
Jan 2@
Apr 8@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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