San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames
TV NBCSCA, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Sharks
to win
58%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.479vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors SJS-.114vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY-.137vs.016GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors SJS.077vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSSJS played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).