Calgary Flames at San Jose Sharks
TV NBCSCA, SN·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
46%Flames
to win
54%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.481vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors SJS-.127vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors SJS-.091vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).