Lightning at Hurricanes — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Lightning at Hurricanes

Tampa Bay Lightning(50-26-6)

Carolina Hurricanes(53-22-7)

Mon, Dec 28, 7:00 PM ESTTV CARNHL, HHN·Lenovo Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

47%

Lightning

to win

53%

Hurricanes

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR
.523vs.542win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR
.125vs.1625v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL
.165vs-.096GSAx / 60
Home icefavors CAR
CAR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/60
85% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/60
9% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/60
6% to start31 career GP

Hurricanes

Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/60
53% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/60
28% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/60
20% to start58 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · CAR Rod Brind'Amour

Leaders

vs

N. Kucherov
130
Points
S. Aho
80
N. Kucherov
44
Goals
A. Svechnikov
31
N. Kucherov
86
Assists
S. Aho
53

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.494th
Goals for / game: 2nd3.55; 2.793rd
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 20.7%17th
Power play: 4th24.9%; 82.6%3rd
Penalty kill: 11th80.5%; 47.4%28th
Faceoffs: 16th50.1%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 25@
Dec 28@this game
Feb 27@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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