Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV TNT, truTV·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Hurricanes
to win
52%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR.542vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR.162vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.096vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors CAR.860vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersHurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/6053% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/6028% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/6020% to start58 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CAR Rod Brind'Amour · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
S. Aho80
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- AssistsS. Aho53
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).