Dallas Stars at Montréal Canadiens
TV Prime Video, TSN2·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Stars
to win
45%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.109vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.390vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors DALMTL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · MTL Martin St. Louis
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).