Canadiens at Stars — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Canadiens at Stars

Montréal Canadiens(48-24-10)

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Thu, Oct 29, 8:00 PM EDTTV Prime Video, TSN2·American Airlines Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

43%

Canadiens

to win

57%

Stars

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.515vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
-.072vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signaleven
.129vs.109GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors MTL
.431vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors DAL
DAL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Canadiens

Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/60
62% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/60
38% to start81 career GP

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · DAL Glen Gulutzan

Leaders

vs

N. Suzuki
101
Points
J. Robertson
96
C. Caufield
51
Goals
J. Robertson
45
N. Suzuki
72
Assists
M. Rantanen
55

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.407th
Goals for / game: 9th3.33; 3.0616th
Goals against / game: 2nd2.71; 23.1%10th
Power play: 2nd28.6%; 78.2%18th
Penalty kill: 13th80.3%; 51.0%11th
Faceoffs: 7th51.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 29@this game
Dec 27@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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