Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks
TV CHSN, TSN5·PSD Bank Dome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
60%Senators
to win
40%
Blackhawks
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.463win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.2235v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.066vs-.081GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs-.6125v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CHICHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Blackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · CHI Jeff Blashill
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).