Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators
TV CHSN, TSN5·PSD Bank Dome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
33%Blackhawks
to win
67%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.463vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.223vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.081vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT-.612vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CHI Jeff Blashill · OTT Travis Green
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).