Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Canadiens
to win
53%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.515vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MIN-.072vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.431vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
- Back-to-backfavors MTLMTL and MIN played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · MIN John Hynes
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).