St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals
TV STLNHL, BN+·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Blues
to win
56%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.503vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signaleven.049vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH-.058vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH.114vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlues
Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/6067% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/6033% to start115 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: STL Jim Montgomery · WSH Spencer Carbery
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.8024th
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 3.1019th
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 17.6%26th
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 76.7%25th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 49.4%19th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).