Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues
TV STLNHL, BN+·Enterprise Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Capitals
to win
51%
Blues
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signaleven.013vs.0495v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs-.058GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH.355vs.1145v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors STLSTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH and STL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Blues
Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/6067% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/6033% to start115 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · STL Jim Montgomery
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.1815th
- Goals for / game
- 24th2.80
- 2.907th
- Goals against / game
- 19th3.10
- 17.8%25th
- Power play
- 26th17.6%
- 80.1%14th
- Penalty kill
- 25th76.7%
- 49.3%20th
- Faceoffs
- 19th49.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).