Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers
TV DSN, NBCSP·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
40%Red Wings
to win
60%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.496vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI-.060vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors PHI-.027vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PHI.273vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
- Back-to-backfavors DETDET played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRed Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).