New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche
TV KUSA, ALT·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
32%Islanders
to win
68%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.4–3.6
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.488vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL-.069vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.078vs.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL-.034vs.3375v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
- Back-to-backfavors NYINYI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 2.885th
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 16.5%30th
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 80.8%10th
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 52.6%5th
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).