Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders
TV ALT, MSGSN·UBS Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
58%Avalanche
to win
42%
Islanders
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs.078GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors NYINYI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · NYI Peter DeBoer
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 5th2.88
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 30th16.5%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 10th80.8%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 5th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).