Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, SNW·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
46%Flames
to win
54%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.481vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.127vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
- Back-to-backfavors CGYBUF played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · BUF Lindy Ruff
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).