Sabres at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Sabres at Flames

Buffalo Sabres(50-23-9)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Thu, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ESTTV MSG-B, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

55%

Sabres

to win

45%

Flames

Expected goals: 3.2–2.8
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF
.535vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF
.045vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY
-.006vs.016GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors BUF
.725vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/60
52% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/60
41% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/60
7% to start16 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

T. Thompson
81
Points
M. Coronato
45
T. Thompson
40
Goals
M. Frost
22
R. Dahlin
55
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.455th
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 2.9310th
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 19.5%21st
Power play: 31st16.2%; 81.9%4th
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 45.9%32nd
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 3@this game
Dec 15@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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