Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche
TV ALT2, MNMT2·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Capitals
to win
61%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.516vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.013vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs.096GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
A. Tuch66
N. MacKinnon127 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.1815th
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 2.907th
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 17.8%25th
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 80.1%14th
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 49.3%20th
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).