Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, ALT2·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Avalanche
to win
48%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 3.1–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.096vs.169GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupseven.337vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6041% to start175 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127
A. Tuch66 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).