Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers
TV NBCSP, SN·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
35%Flames
to win
65%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PHI.481vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI-.127vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.016vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PHI-.091vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
- Back-to-backfavors CGYCGY played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · PHI Rick Tocchet
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).