Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators
TV SCRIPPS, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Golden Knights
to win
52%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.514vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.050vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · OTT Travis Green
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).