Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights
TV SCRIPPS, TSN5·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Senators
to win
56%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.515vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.107vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.066vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).