Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens
TV SCRIPPS, TSN2·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Golden Knights
to win
48%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.514vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL-.050vs.129GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · MTL Martin St. Louis
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2214th
- Goals for / game
- 7th3.40
- 2.9512th
- Goals against / game
- 16th3.06
- 24.6%6th
- Power play
- 10th23.1%
- 81.4%7th
- Penalty kill
- 18th78.2%
- 51.0%12th
- Faceoffs
- 11th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).