Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights
TV SCRIPPS, TVAS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Canadiens
to win
55%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.515vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.072vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.431vs.8215v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
- Back-to-backfavors MTLVGK played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · VGK Ryan Craig
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.407th
- Goals for / game
- 14th3.22
- 3.0616th
- Goals against / game
- 12th2.95
- 23.1%10th
- Power play
- 6th24.6%
- 78.2%18th
- Penalty kill
- 7th81.4%
- 51.0%11th
- Faceoffs
- 12th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).