Stars at Canucks — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Stars at Canucks

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Vancouver Canucks(25-49-8)

Sat, Dec 5, 10:00 PM ESTTV Prime Video, SN·Rogers Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

64%

Stars

to win

36%

Canucks

Expected goals: 3.4–2.6
Goes to overtime: 21%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.527vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
.038vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
.109vs-.089GSAx / 60
Home icefavors VAN
VAN at home
Back-to-backfavors DAL
VAN played yesterday

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

Canucks

Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/60
42% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/60
41% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/60
10% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/60
8% to start23 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · VAN Manny Malhotra

Leaders

vs

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.339th
Goals for / game: 30th2.56; 2.712nd
Goals against / game: 32nd3.83; 28.6%2nd
Power play: 14th21.8%; 80.3%13th
Penalty kill: 32nd71.5%; 51.6%7th
Faceoffs: 22nd49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 5@this game
Jan 28@
Feb 23@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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