Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, SNW·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Flames
to win
58%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET.481vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET-.127vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY.016vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DET-.091vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · DET Todd McLellan
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).