Red Wings at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Red Wings at Flames

Detroit Red Wings(41-31-10)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM EDTTV DSN, SN·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

50%

Red Wings

to win

50%

Flames

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET
.496vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET
-.060vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY
-.027vs.016GSAx / 60
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Red Wings

John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/60
70% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/60
30% to start98 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

A. DeBrincat
85
Points
M. Coronato
45
A. DeBrincat
41
Goals
M. Frost
22
L. Raymond
51
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.9122nd
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 3.1019th
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 22.6%12th
Power play: 31st16.2%; 77.1%23rd
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 51.0%10th
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 24@this game
Dec 1@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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