Calgary Flames at New York Rangers
TV MSG, SNW·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Flames
to win
58%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CGY.481vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYR-.127vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR.016vs.112GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors NYR-.091vs.3575v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors CGYCGY and NYR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · NYR Mike Sullivan
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).