New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks
TV Prime Video, MSGSN·Honda Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Islanders
to win
55%
Ducks
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.488vs.486win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors ANA-.069vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs-.049GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors ANA-.034vs.0075v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors ANAANA at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Ducks
Lukas Dostal-0.03 GSAx/6049% to start189 career GP
Ville Husso-0.17 GSAx/6032% to start174 career GP
Laurent Brossoit+0.11 GSAx/6018% to start151 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · ANA Joel Quenneville
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 13th3.23
- 2.885th
- Goals against / game
- 29th3.51
- 16.5%30th
- Power play
- 23rd18.6%
- 80.8%10th
- Penalty kill
- 27th76.4%
- 52.6%5th
- Faceoffs
- 25th48.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).