Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, SCRIPPS·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Golden Knights
to win
55%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.514vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors VGK-.050vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT.821vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
- Back-to-backfavors VGKVGK played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · PIT Dan Muse
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2214th
- Goals for / game
- 3rd3.54
- 2.9512th
- Goals against / game
- 24th3.15
- 24.6%6th
- Power play
- 7th24.1%
- 81.4%7th
- Penalty kill
- 6th81.4%
- 51.0%12th
- Faceoffs
- 24th48.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).