Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks
TV NBCSCA, TSN5·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Senators
to win
45%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.066vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.358th
- Goals for / game
- 17th3.04
- 2.9913th
- Goals against / game
- 30th3.54
- 24.0%8th
- Power play
- 16th21.2%
- 75.7%29th
- Penalty kill
- 26th76.4%
- 54.5%2nd
- Faceoffs
- 26th47.8%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).