San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators
TV NBCSCA, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Sharks
to win
55%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.479vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.114vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.137vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSOTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).