Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
TV The Spot, ALT·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Lightning
to win
57%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.523vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.125vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.294vs.3375v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).