Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, ALT·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Avalanche
to win
50%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.096vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.337vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors COLCOL and TBL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).