Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, SNP·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
33%Canucks
to win
67%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.439vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.225vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.089vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VAN Manny Malhotra · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5630th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 3.8332nd
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 21.8%14th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 71.5%32nd
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 49.3%22nd
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).